Cybertruck or Cybertrick?
Sweet, LIKE A SACK OF POTATOES!
A lot has been said about the Cybertruck. Yet, it offers a timely and relevant case study.
To me, a successful product should tick three boxes: user desirability, business viability, and production feasibility.
Delivering a working prototype is not enough. We must ALSO tangibly deliver in all three above areas to earn the right to be a sustainable product.
How does Tesla’s new truck rate, using these benchmarks?
Production Feasibility: Weight is a massive problem with electric vehicles (EVs). The most significant promise of the Cybertruck was a revolutionary exoskeleton design.
A lighter external structure would save weight and enable greater bed and cargo capacity. Further, when combined with a lighter and easier-to-make battery, the EV truck weight penalty would be eliminated.
The verdict: ❌ Fail. According to a Tesla source, instead, it will be built "more like a Honda Ridgeline" or "a big old Model Y." A unibody construction, not the promised exoskeleton structure. So, towing and transporting stuff in the bed remains a challenge. AND, the new batteries are a significant bottleneck in production.
The body and the bed don't do anything useful… (in a body-on-frame construction): They are carried like cargo, like a sack of potatoes." — Elon Musk
Business Viability: Good news! A lucky 10% of the customers will receive their trucks before 2025 at — ahem! — 33% above the promised cost.
Not so good news. Customers deeper in the queue are being offered $1000 to jump the line and buy one of their other EVs.
The Verdict: ❌ Fail. Not only will 90% of customers remain empty-handed, those who get a Cybertruck, don’t receive what was promised (AND pay more for it). To add insult to injury, profitability for the rest of their cars may suffer because of rebate exposure of several million cars!
Fixed in post?
Customer Desirability: Yes, the queue is long and Tesla buzz is strong. Yet, if your main user problems are bullet-proof driving, or shaming a Ford F150 in a tug-of-war, hurray! If it's avoiding any weight or cargo penalty, you will be disappointed.
The Verdict: ❌ Fail. In the short term, Tesla will sell all Cybertrucks produced. Mostly as a status symbol for the ardent Tesla-bros or to flip for profit.
In the long term, however, Tesla’s Cybertruck V1 design is not so “sweet.” In hindsight, it will prove to be a costly “sack of potatoes."
